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2024

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05

US and Europe will lead global clean hydrogen production in 2030, with little supply from exporting nations: BNEF

Author:

HydrogenInsight


The many nations around the world that are planning to become exporters of clean hydrogen will be left disappointed at the end of the decade as the global demand for imported H2 will be far less than they hope, according to a new report from research house BloombergNEF (BNEF).

 

This is mainly because the US and Europe will be the world’s largest producers of clean hydrogen, with blue H2 making up most of the total in America.

 

“Government policies and targets will be the prime driver of clean hydrogen project deployment this decade. As a result, three markets with the strongest public support – the US, Europe and China – dominate global H2 supply in this outlook,” says the new report, Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2024: Regional deep dives.

 

“Most other markets fall behind in their ambitions… Prospective export markets are likely to undershoot their 2030 goals.

 

“Project progress in Latin America, Australia, the Middle East and Africa is constrained by low demand and export policies that have a limited impact before 2030. The US and Canada could meet most export demand, particularly for blue H2, due to the maturity of projects and strong subsidies.”

 

In total, 16.4 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen will be produced annually around the world by 2030, from 477 projects, says BNEF, with 37.2% manufactured in the US, followed by Europe (24.3%), China (18.9%), Canada (5.5%), Middle East and Africa (4.9%), India (3%), Latin America (2.4%), Australia (1.8%) and the rest of Asia (1.2%). For full figures, see table below.

 

Image:BNEF

 

Of this total, 9.5 million tonnes will be green hydrogen made from renewables, while 6.9 million tonnes will be blue (made from natural gas with carbon capture and storage), with most of the latter coming from North America.

 

Countries with big clean hydrogen amibtions, but low levels of public support — such as Egypt and Chile — will see little, if any, projects completed by 2030 without further incentives, says the report.

 

It adds that the forecast for China is “highly uncertain due to a lack of project visibility and targets for 2030”, adding that tightening environmental regulation for coal-based chemicals producers and state-owned companies “could drive faster projects deployment”.

 

And in India, the subsidies awarded in its first green hydrogen auction “are low by international standards and probably not enough to justify the projects’ final investment decisions”.

 

BNEF’s figures — which are based on a bottom-up analysis of more than 1,600 projects in its Hydrogen Data Hub — are far more pessimistic than a similar report unveiled by the Hydrogen Council in November, which expected 40 million tonnes of clean hydrogen being produced in 2030, with 20 million tonnes transported between continents.

 

Source: HydrogenInsight

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