The World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam this week exposed a sector that is simultaneously more technically capable and more commercially frustrated than at any point in its history — with European electrolyser makers, major project developers, and import-nation ministers all converging on the same diagnosis: the market isn't moving fast enough, and policy instability is a big reason why.

 

• From Thyssenkrupp Nucera's warning that European manufacturers can beat China on cost — but only if demand arrives — to Air Products' blunt objection to reopening RFNBO rules, and Oman's minister confirming first green ammonia exports are a year away, Rotterdam 2026 made clear that the hydrogen industry's problems are no longer technical.

 

Europe Can Win on Cost — If Someone Actually Buys

The headline intervention at this year's Summit came from Werner Ponikwar, CEO of Thyssenkrupp Nucera, who made the case directly: European electrolysers can beat Chinese competitors on levelised cost of hydrogen, because of superior efficiency and, critically, better lifecycle performance. The total cost of ownership argument — not just upfront capital, but operating costs, degradation rates, and system performance over a decade — is where European technology holds its edge.

 

But Ponikwar's confidence came with a stark caveat. Europe risks accelerating losses in market share — not because the technology is inferior, but because demand isn't materialising fast enough to keep factories running and costs falling. Thyssenkrupp Nucera has been undergoing restructuring to weather exactly that weak demand environment, even while it continues to upgrade 3.2 GW of electrolysers currently in execution.

 

Eight European electrolyser manufacturers — including Nucera, ITM Power, and Siemens Energy — have jointly written to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urging more flexibility on RFNBO time-matching rules and recognition of subsidised renewables as additional. The firms are direct: the current strict rules are stalling projects and leaving their factories idle.

 

Don't Touch the Rules — Air Products and Rotterdam Push Back

Not everyone in Rotterdam agrees that changing the RFNBO framework is the answer. Air Products' head of Europe, Ivo Bols, was clear and unambiguous: "Reopening these rules, reopening these certifications is not a good idea if we talk about accelerating." His argument is straightforward — every time the European Commission signals that the regulatory foundation might shift, developers freeze investment decisions and wait.

 

Air Products has skin in the game here. Its one-third-owned 2.2 GW NEOM Green Hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia — one of the world's largest — is heading toward completion and is expected to begin producing molecules in early 2027. Bols' call for regulatory stability reflects the commercial reality of a company that has committed billions to projects built around the current certification framework.

 

The Port of Rotterdam's CEO Boudewijn Siemons took a different but equally pointed position: more hydrogen simply needs to get to market — regardless of its colour — to build the infrastructure, the trade flows, and the demand signals that the industry needs. Critics of that view argue that allowing lower-quality hydrogen to fill the pipeline does nothing to advance European energy independence or the credibility of the RFNBO standard.

 

The Green Hydrogen Organisation weighed in with a letter of its own to the Commission, warning that changing the rules now would "destabilise the market" and "freeze investment" — an almost exact echo of Air Products' position, from a different direction. The GH2 is backed by major renewable energy producers including India's Adani, Acme and AM Green, Australia's Fortescue, and China's LONGi and Hygreen — all of whom have built project plans around the current framework.

 

Oman: First Green Ammonia Export Is Coming — But Scale Is the Problem

One of the most concrete announcements from Rotterdam came from Oman's Energy and Minerals Minister Salim Al Aufi, who confirmed that Acme Group's 100,000-tonne-per-year green ammonia project in Duqm — awarded in the Sultanate's first green hydrogen production auction and supplying fertiliser major Yara — will ship its first green ammonia to Europe by around this time next year, likely on an ammonia-powered vessel.

 

Al Aufi was honest about the limitations: the scale is still too small, and Oman is still working toward the $3/kg green hydrogen aspiration. The Duqm project can eventually scale to 1.2 million tonnes per year in subsequent phases, but getting there requires exactly the kind of stable, long-term offtake signals from European buyers that the RFNBO debate is currently disrupting.

 

Al Aufi also had a direct message for EU policymakers: developers are "seriously struggling with the changing standards," and urged the bloc to agree on a final RFNBO definition and hold it for several years to allow projects to reach final investment decision.

 

Rotterdam's Own Pipeline Opens This Week

Against the backdrop of these debates, the Port of Rotterdam announced that its 32 km hydrogen pipeline — connecting hydrogen producers and industrial consumers across the port's vast industrial complex — is opening this week. It's a rare moment of tangible, operational infrastructure in a sector that has spent too long announcing plans. The pipeline opens direct supply connections between electrolysis facilities and industrial off-takers at one of Europe's most important energy hubs, and it gives Rotterdam a concrete claim to be building the import infrastructure the green hydrogen trade will require.

 

Source:  FCW Team