• Nations remain divided on shipping decarbonisation after the IMO working group in London ended without agreement on revised legal text.
• One compromise under discussion would soften the greenhouse gas fuel intensity trajectory around 2030 while requiring steeper reductions toward 2040.

The future of the global deal on shipping decarbonisation remains uncertain after the latest round of International Maritime Organization talks in London, held 1 to 4 September. The working group closed without agreement on revised legal text, with governments asked to continue consultations.

One compromise gaining attention would soften the GFI trajectory around 2030 while requiring steeper reductions later toward 2040.

Under the existing draft, ships would progressively reduce the lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity of the energy they use against a reference value of 93.3 gCO2e/MJ. By 2030, the framework sets a base GFI reduction target of 8% and a stricter "direct compliance" target of 21%. Ships missing the targets would face compliance costs; those beating the stricter threshold could generate surplus compliance units.

The framework was approved at MEPC 83 in April 2025. Formal adoption stalled in October 2025 when member states failed to reach consensus, with the carbon-pricing mechanism among the main points of disagreement, and the special adoption session was adjourned for one year.

What It Means for Hydrogen Fuels

A weaker 2030 trajectory would reduce the near-term compliance pressure to use lower-emission fuels. That could affect green ammonia and e-methanol projects seeking long-term shipping offtake around the end of the decade.

Developers may still benefit if a compromise allows the framework to be adopted, particularly if incentives for zero- and near-zero-emission fuels remain in the final text. Nothing on that point is settled.

The shape of any revised trajectory has not been agreed. Governments have been asked to develop compromise proposals ahead of ISWG-GHG 23 on 23–27 November, followed by MEPC 85 on 30 November to 3 December. The adjourned extraordinary MEPC session is currently scheduled to resume on 4 December.

Source:  FCW Team